In
this paper, the potential effects of automated driving that are
relevant to policy and society are explored, findings discussed in
literature about those effects are reviewed and areas for future
research are identified. The structure of our review is based on the
ripple effect concept, which represents the implications of automated
vehicles at three different stages: first-order (traffic, travel cost,
and travel choices), second-order (vehicle ownership and sharing,
location choices and land use, and transport infrastructure), and
third-order (energy consumption, air pollution, safety, social equity,
economy, and public health). Our review shows that first-order impacts
on road capacity, fuel efficiency, emissions, and accidents risk are
expected to be beneficial. The magnitude of these benefits will likely
increase with the level of automation and cooperation and with the
penetration rate of these systems. The synergistic effects between
vehicle automation, sharing, and electrification can multiply these
benefits. However, studies confirm that automated vehicles can induce
additional travel demand because of more and longer vehicle trips.
Potential land use changes have not been included in these estimations
about excessive travel demand. Other third-order benefits on safety,
economy, public health and social equity still remain unclear.
Therefore, the balance between the short-term benefits and long-term
impacts of vehicle automation remains an open question.
Keywords: automated driving; first, second, and third order impacts; policy and societal implications; ripple effect
Milakis, D. van Arem, B., van Wee, B., 2017. Policy and society related implications of automated driving: a review of literature a directions for future research. Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems: Technology, Planning and Operations 21(4): 324-348.
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