Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands @TRB16

The spotlight theme of the 95th meeting of the Transportation Research Board (January 10-14, 2016) is “Research Convergence for a Multimodal Future”. Planning implications of the future multimodal system in a context of changing lifestyles and attitudes towards mobility is indeed a very interesting topic surrounded by many uncertainties.

I am happy to contribute to this discussion in session 751 “Planning for Multimodal Transportation in the 21st Century” (Wednesday January 13, 8:00 AM- 9:45 AM, Convention Center, 146B) with our paper on scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands co-authored by D. Milakis, M. Snelder, B. van Arem, B. van Wee, and G. Correia.

This session will discuss the impacts of emerging technologies in transportation (e.g., shared mobility services, including carsharing and on-demand ride services such as Uber or Lyft, among others), sociodemographic shifts and changes in lifestyles and attitudes (e.g., associated with the "millennial" generation), and the future adoption of autonomous vehicles, and how these factors are expected to affect future multimodal travel demand. Here is the list of the very interesting papers of this session:

Session Introduction - Planning for multimodal transportation at a time of sociodemographic changes and emerging transportation services (P16-1433)
Giovanni Circella, Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech)

Shared Mobility Services: Industry Developments, Early Understandings and Planning Implications (P16-0880)
Katie Benouar, California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS)
Erik Alm, California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS)

Addressing Emerging Trends in the Florida Transportation Plan (P16-0881)
James Wood, Florida Department of Transportation
Dana Reiding, Florida Department of Transportation
Carmen Monroy, Florida Department of Transportation

Declining Driving among Millennials: A Nationwide Perspective of the Causes and Consequences (P16-1289)
Kelcie Ralph, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Brian Taylor, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Evelyn Blumenberg, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Anne Brown, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Carole Turley Voulgaris, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)

Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands (16-0765)
Dimitris Milakis, Delft University of Technology
Maaike Snelder, Delft University of Technology
Bart van Arem, Delft University of Technology
Bert van Wee, Delft University of Technology
Goncalo Correia, Delft University of Technology

Our paper presents the results of a research study carried out on behalf of the Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). We identified through scenario analysis plausible future development paths of automated vehicles in the Netherlands and estimated potential implications for traffic, travel behavior and transport planning on a time horizon up to 2030 and 2050. The scenario analysis was performed through a series of three workshops engaging a group of diverse experts. Sixteen key factors and five driving forces behind them were identified as critical in determining future development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands. Four scenarios were constructed assuming combinations of high or low technological development and restrictive or supportive policies for automated vehicles (AV …in standby, AV …in bloom, AV …in demand, AV …in doubt). According to the scenarios, fully automated vehicles are expected to be commercially available between 2025 and 2045, and to penetrate market rapidly after their introduction. Penetration rates are expected to vary among different scenarios between 1% and 11% (mainly conditionally automated vehicles) in 2030 and between 7% and 61% (mainly fully automated vehicles) in 2050. Complexity of the urban environment and unexpected incidents may influence development path of automated vehicles. Certain implications on mobility are expected in all scenarios, although there is great variation in the impacts among the scenarios. It is expected that measures to curb growth of travel and subsequent externalities will be necessary in three out of the four scenarios.

Four scenarios about development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands.

The full TRB paper is available here and a summary of the study (poster) prepared for the Automated Vehicles Symposium 2015 can be downloaded from here.

Looking forward to a fruitful discussion about multimodal futures at TRB16!

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